Brustio, Stival & Boccia 2023, relative age effect reversal in athletics

Journal of Sports Sciences study of the junior-to-senior transition in world-class track and field. The relative age effect (over-representation of athletes born early in the selection year) that dominates junior ranks reverses on the way to the senior elite: relatively younger athletes had higher transition rates and a better chance of reaching and holding top senior level (odds ratio about 1.64), an effect more pronounced in men and varying by event. Evidence that early selection advantages are largely maturation rather than talent, and that later-developing athletes are prematurely de-selected.